MBA Attendees Expect Continued Growth in 2012 via NREI

Commercial real estate lenders are aiming to build on the momentum of a strong 2011 and increase volumes even further in 2012. Most are aware that external shocks—such as a sovereign default in Europe or a confrontation with Iran in the Middle East that disrupts oil flows—remain a risk. But few see dangers within the internal dynamics of the industry.

That was the mood at this year’s Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) annual Commercial Real Estate Finance/Multifamily Housing Convention and Expo in Atlanta. The MBA’s inaugural forecast of industry volume projects originations of commercial and multifamily mortgages will hit $230 billion in 2012, an increase of 17 percent from 2011 volumes, and continue to rise to $290 billion in 2015.

“We’re in a period of stability. Everyone is talking about increasing volume. Barring a major dislocation in capital markets, it should be a strong year,” said Tom Fish, executive managing director with Jones Lang LaSalle’s Americas Real Estate Investment Banking division.

For example, anecdotally, one attendee pointed out that an informal survey of conduit lenders targets for the year amounted to $60 billion. That’s double the volume the CMBS sector originated in 2011. To be sure, not every firm will likely be achieve its goals, but it does indicate that the CMBS sector—which faced some issues in the late summer of 2011—is functioning again.

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