Monday, November 4, 2013

Signs of Steady Output Growth Continue While Labor Markets Disappoint via Dallas Fed

Economic indicators released in September and October present a modest outlook for growth for third quarter 2013 and imply likewise for the second half of the year. Output growth for the second quarter remained unchanged in its third estimate. The employment situation also showed some mildly positive signs in September—buoyed by modest job gains and a decrease in unemployment—but disappointed expectations of a stronger jobs path out of the recovery. Inflation measures remain anchored, and gauges of future inflation exhibit stability as well.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.5 percent annualized in second quarter 2013 (Chart 1). This shows acceleration from the previous quarter’s rate of 1.1 percent and no change from the second estimate in August. Most components of real GDP showed either an increase or no significant decline in contribution to growth from first quarter 2013, offsetting the two that decreased, namely, real personal consumption and private inventories; and none showed much change in revision.

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