Muddled Employment Situation Continues via Axiometrics

The government shutdown during the first two weeks of October delayed the release of the September national employment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) until last week, and will postpone the release of employment by metropolitan area until the release of October’s figures in November. This report focuses on the national figures and, more specifically, on both national total nonfarm employment and national private nonfarm employment that excludes the Government employment sector. We will return to our normal format next month.

Any way you look at it, September’s total nonfarm seasonally adjusted (SA) payroll employment figure was disappointing. Total nonfarm job gain in September was 148,000, much less than the consensus forecast of 180,000 jobs. August was revised upward from 169,000 to 193,000 but July was revised down from 104,000 to 89,000. The average monthly gain for the year is 181,800, but it has been slowing as the quarterly average has declined from 233,000 in the first quarter, to 172,000 in the second, and 151,000 in the third.

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