The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their latest employment numbers on Friday, July 5th and they were significantly higher than consensus forecasts had predicted. The figure for June – 195,000 jobs – outpaced economist’s forecasts of 165,000 jobs. At the same time, the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised from 149,000 to 199,000, and the change for May was revised from 175,000 to 195,000; adding 70,000 jobs to the economy. But is it time to celebrate? A look inside the numbers reveals several reasons for continuing concern or perhaps, cautious optimism.
The 195,000 figure for June comes from the BLS’s Current Employment Statistics (CES) or establishment survey which provides a reliable gauge of monthly change in nonfarm employment while the Current Population Survey (CPS) or household survey provides a broader picture of employment including agriculture and the self employed. The household survey is a count of people that have jobs while the establishment survey asks employers how many jobs they have filled. Multiple job holders in the household survey are counted only once so those workers holding down two or more part time jobs are possibly over counted in the establishment survey.In fact, the number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (involuntary part-time workers) increased by 322,000 to 8.2 million in June.
Read more...195,000 Jobs added in June: Celebrate or Consternate? via Axiometrics
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