Texas Employment Forecast 8/21/20 via Dallas Fed

Texas job growth fell to 2.5 percent in July after increasing a revised 14.7 percent in June. Private sector jobs fell 1.1 percent. Employment is down 10.4 percent since December 2019. The Texas Leading Index increased for the third consecutive month in July after sharp declines in March and April.

Using a top-down model based on national forecasts, COVID-19 infection rates and oil futures prices, we estimate that Texas jobs will continue to recover in the second half of the year but not enough to fully offset the losses in March and April. The Texas Employment Forecast projects jobs will decline 5.2 percent this year (December/December).

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