Friday, January 19, 2018

Turning the Page: Houston’s Multifamily Market Poised for Growth in 2018 via REBusinessOnline

Houston’s resilient multifamily market has turned a corner and is poised for growth this year, according to experts across a range of industries.

While the city faced significant headwinds in 2017, mainly a sluggish energy sector and a major hurricane that damaged thousands of homes and apartments, Houston’s strong fundamentals have paved the way for the multifamily market to post its strongest performance since 2015.

Read more...Turning the Page: Houston’s Multifamily Market Poised for Growth in 2018 | REBusinessOnline

Tax Overhaul Is a Blow to Affordable Housing Efforts via The New York Times

The last time that Congress approved a sweeping overhaul of the federal tax code, in 1986, it created a tax credit meant to encourage the private sector to invest in affordable housing. It has grown into a $9 billion-a-year social program that has funded the construction of some three million apartments for low-income residents.

But the Republican tax plan approved last month amounts to a vast cutback, making it much less likely that such construction will continue apace. Because the tax rate for corporations has been lowered, the value of the credits — which corporations get in return for their investments — is also lower.

Read more...Tax Overhaul Is a Blow to Affordable Housing Efforts - The New York Times

Thursday, January 18, 2018

Texas Tops the List of Renter Majority Cities via Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts

With Texas’ population growing by roughly 1,200 people per day, you may wonder – where are all those newcomers living? In rental housing, most likely.

According to a recent Census Bureau report on “predominately renter” cities, College Station is at number one nationally, with nearly 60 percent of its residents in rental housing. Killeen ranks third at 56 percent.

“Texas is a young state in terms of demographics,” says Dr. Jim Gaines, chief economist at Texas A&M Real Estate Center. “During the last five to six years, a record number of young people have moved here looking for work. More than 50 percent of the state’s population is 34 years old or younger.”

Read more...Texas Tops the List of Renter Majority Cities

Six Takeaways from the NMHC Apartment Strategies Outlook Conference via National Real Estate Investor

For the multifamily sector, 2018 should be a healthy year. Demand is strong—and it will be for some time. That was largely the message at the National Multifamily Housing Council’s annual Apartment Strategies Outlook Conference, held this week in Orlando. However, the optimism at the conference was somewhat tempered by the prospects of increasing supply, rising interest rates and an eventual downturn in the not-too-distant future. Here are some key takeaways from the event.

Read more...Six Takeaways from the NMHC Apartment Strategies Outlook Conference | National Real Estate Investor

Bid-Ask Gap Persists Even as Price Appreciation Slows via National Real Estate Investor

The investment sales market should be riding high along with healthy liquidity and strong investor demand to buy commercial real estate assets. Yet signs of stagnant, and even falling, property prices are putting a damper on enthusiasm.

“2017 was definitely a flat or down year for property prices,” says Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio. The Ten-X Commercial Real Estate Nowcast has been signally pricing weakness for much of 2017. According to the December index, commercial prices increased 1 percent over the past year, which is the weakest appreciation pace in this cycle.

Read more...Bid-Ask Gap Persists Even as Price Appreciation Slows | National Real Estate Investor

US housing starts down sharply on drop in single-family units via CNBC

U.S. homebuilding fell more than expected in December, recording its biggest drop in just over a year, amid a steep decline in the construction of single-family housing units following two months of hefty gains.

Housing starts decreased 8.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.192 million units, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. November's sales pace was revised up to 1.299 million units from the previously reported 1.297 million units.

Read more...US housing starts down sharply on drop in single-family units

Eleventh District Beige Book 1/17/2018 via Dallas Fed

The Eleventh District economy expanded at a robust pace over the past six weeks. A broad-based acceleration in growth was seen across the manufacturing, retail, nonfinancial services and energy sectors. Home sales continued to increase over the reporting period, and loan demand grew. Hiring picked up, and wage and price pressures remained elevated. Outlooks improved, although some uncertainty remained, and numerous contacts were optimistic that tax reform would provide a tailwind to business growth.

Read more,,,Eleventh District Beige Book - Dallasfed.org

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Seven Predictions for the Multifamily Sector in 2018 via National Real Estate Investor

“Stable.” That’s the one word that encapsulates the anticipated state of the multifamily sector this year, according to Greg Willett, chief economist at RealPage, a Richardson, Texas-based firm which provides property management software solutions. That was also the sentiment expressed by other industry experts as well, when asked for their forecasts for the upcoming year. “The reality is multifamily going into 2018 is going to be a lot of the same,” says John Sebree, first vice president and national director of the national multi housing group at Marcus & Millichap, a real estate services firm. Here are those predictions broken down.

Read more...Seven Predictions for the Multifamily Sector in 2018

Economy Watch: Apartments Rents Falling in Some Major Markets via Multi-Housing News

Apartment rents were still going up nationwide in 2017, according to a new report by RentCafé. The national average apartment rent in 2017 increased by 2.5 percent year-over-year, reaching $1,359 per month at the end of 2017, according to Rent Cafe, citing Yardi Matrix data. Not only is that up for the year, but considerably higher than before the recession: in December 2007, the national average was just below $1,100.

Read more...Economy Watch: Apartments Rents Falling in Some Major Markets

In Booming North Texas, Dallas Fed Chair Sees Demographic, Financial Challenges Down the Road via Urban Land Magazine

With the Texas economy firing on all cylinders, 2018 looks to be another good year for many industries, including residential real estate and both the energy and industrial sectors. But key demographic changes could challenge the future prosperity of Texas and other states.

“In the context of a strong U.S. economy, DFW [Dallas/Fort Worth] is extremely strong,” said Robert Kaplan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Kaplan spoke on a wide range of economic issues in January at the Urban Land Institute’s sold-out Emerging Trends event in Dallas.

Read more...In Booming North Texas, Dallas Fed Chair Sees Demographic, Financial Challenges Down the Road - Urban Land Magazine

Friday, January 12, 2018

2018 D/FW State of Industry via Dimensions Online

What exactly is our state of the industry? Well, as of January 9, 2018, we have a insight of what to expect for the coming year as all those who attended our annual AAGD-AATC SOI Luncheon. If you want some insight into what to expect, then keep reading!

AAGD-AATC State of the Industry (SOI) economic forecast panelists Jay Denton, Senior Vice President with Axiomatics; Jeff Price, Managing Director with JLL Capital; and Brian O’Boyle, Vice Chairman of ARA foresee a strong 2018 for the DFW multifamily industry.

Read more...2018 D/FW State of Industry – Dimensions Online

Renting in Dallas Got More Expensive in 2017 via CandysDirt.com

Dallas rents grew 2.2 percent in 2017, bringing the median two-bedroom rent to $1,100. It’s not just in Dallas proper where rents are on the rise – rents increased in 2017 in all the major Dallas metro cities including Fort Worth (4.3 percent), Arlington (6.6 percent), Plano (2.9 percent), Garland (2.7 percent), and Irving (3.8 percent). There is some relief for Dallas renters — rents in Dallas proper have declined 0.3 percent over the past month, and are down 1.2 percent since their 2017 peak in August.

Read more...Renting in Dallas Got More Expensive in 2017 - CandysDirt.com

Investors Shift from Values to Income Stream via GlobeSt.com

The road ahead could lead to robust economic growth or to a slowdown, each with broad implications for commercial real estate values. In either case, investors should not look to asset appreciation as a given when calibrating their near-term strategies, CBRE’s Chris Ludeman tells GlobeSt.com.

Partly this is due to the age of the current cycle, in keeping with historical norms. “As we get longer in the cycle, where there’s less cap rate compression, investors rely more on property performance to drive value,” says Ludeman, global president, capital markets at CBRE. ‘And that’s what has happened.” The increasingly small share that price appreciation has had in the NCREIF Property Index’s quarterly returns lately is a case in point.

Read more...Investors Shift from Values to Income Stream | GlobeSt.com

Why Dallas-Fort Worth led the nation's top areas with over 100,000 new jobs via Dallas News

Dallas-Fort Worth’s job base grew the fastest of the nation’s dozen biggest metro areas over the year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.

From November 2016 to November of last year, the D-FW metro added 100,400 jobs — a 2.8 percent increase. That was also the largest increase by sheer number.

Read more...Why Dallas-Fort Worth led the nation's top areas with over 100,000 new jobs | Economy | Dallas News

Thursday, January 11, 2018

Property Pricing Declines for 8th Consecutive Month in Ten-X CRE 'Nowcast' via Multifamily Executive Magazine

Annual commercial real estate pricing fell to a new low in December, according to the newest CRE Nowcast monthly pricing index by online commercial real estate marketplace Ten-X Commercial. Commercial pricing fell by 0.3% from November, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline and the lowest pricing-point growth in this cycle. The pricing gauge is now just 1.0% higher than it was one year ago.

“Despite positive economic news and a new tax law that should benefit CRE, investor sentiment has been quite weak, leading to a startling eighth straight month of pricing contraction for the sector,” says Peter Muoio, chief economist at Ten-X.

Read more...Property Pricing Declines for 8th Consecutive Month in Ten-X CRE 'Nowcast' | Multifamily Executive Magazine

Builders dialing back apartment starts across the country via Dallas News

After years of booming construction, America's apartment-building binge is cooling.

Nationwide apartment starts dropped by about 8 percent in 2017, with more declines forecast in 2018 and 2019.

"The cycle for apartments is leveling off," said Robert Dietz, chief economist with the National Association of Home Builders. "Rental vacancy rates are rising and rent increases are slowing.

Read more...Builders dialing back apartment starts across the country | Real Estate | Dallas News

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Value-Add Opportunities in the Multifamily Sector Are Harder to Find via National Real Estate Investor

Investors are still looking for apartment properties that can be renovated to earn more rental income. But properties with value-add potential are becoming more difficult to find.

“There are very few properties left that are easily diagnosed as value-add opportunities,” says John Sebree, first vice president and director in the national multi housing group of brokerage firm Marcus & Millichap. “A lot of that product has already been upgraded.”

Read more...Value-Add Opportunities in the Multifamily Sector Are Harder to Find | National Real Estate Investor

Apartment Rents Unchanged in December via GlobeSt.com

Multifamily rents averaged $1,359 per month nationally at year’s end, the same dollar amount that Yardi Matrix’s monthly survey of 121 markets reported for November. On a year-over-year basis, rents in December were up 2.5%, an increase of 20 basis points from the previous month.

Although that’s a solid gain, it’s also the smallest annual increase recorded by Yardi Matrix since 2010, when annual rents fell 0.4%. Since then, rents have posted Y-O-Y gains of at least 3.3% per year—peaking at 5.4% in 2015—until 2017 broke the streak. Rents were down 0.3% for the fourth quarter, only the second quarter of negative growth since Q2 ’10.

Read more...Apartment Rents Unchanged in December | GlobeSt.com

Monday, January 8, 2018

Austin Economic Indicators 1-5-18 via Dallas Fed

Economic growth in Austin was robust in November. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated as jobs remained strong and the unemployment rate held at a very low level. Employment and survey data suggest Austin’s manufacturing sector grew strongly in 2017.

Read more...Austin Economic Indicators - Dallasfed.org

CRE Pricing Flattens Out for 2017 via GlobeSt.com

Commercial property pricing looked much the same way at year’s end as it did at the start. Green Street Advisors said Friday its Green Street Commercial Property Price Index was essentially unchanged in December. The index, which measures values across five major property sectors, declined by less than 1% across the course of last year.

“Property pricing as a whole ended the year where it started it, but performance in 2017 really depended on the type of property,” says Peter Rothemund, senior analyst at Newport Beach, CA-based Green Street. “Industrial, life science, medical office, and manufactured home parks all were up big last year, while mall values fell more than 10%. Everything else was somewhere in between.”

Read more...CRE Pricing Flattens Out for 2017 | GlobeSt.com

Older, wealthier Americans are the new renters via CNBC

They can afford to buy homes. They just don't want to.

That is the growing sentiment among older, wealthier Americans, who are now downsizing from big suburban homes and increasingly turning to the rental market.

The number of higher-income rental households has doubled in the last decade, according to a new report from Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies, and that trend will likely increase in the coming years as more baby boomers downsize.

Read more...Older, wealthier Americans are the new renters

Friday, January 5, 2018

Coming in 2018: Smaller rent increases and slower home price growth via Dallas News

North Texas' booming real estate market has been a windfall for landlords.

The cost of renting all types of properties has jumped since the recession and are at an all-time high. But after years of gains, there are signs that 2018 will mean slower rent appreciation for some Dallas-Fort Worth real estate.

Read more...Coming in 2018: Smaller rent increases and slower home price growth | Commentary | Dallas News

Houston Economic Indicators 1/4/2018 via Dallas Fed

Houston economic activity continued to improve in November. The Houston Business-Cycle Index ticked up, employment totals surpassed pre-hurricane levels, and mining-related employment increased. A local leading index of economic indicators also increased strongly. Taken together, the outlook for Houston remains positive.

Read more...Houston Economic Indicators - Dallasfed.org

Investment Sales Took a Nose Dive before the End of the Year via National Real Estate Investor

Heading into 2018, there may be some bright spots for the investment sales market, even as total transactions dipped last year, according to a recent report from New York City-based research firm Real Capital Analytics (RCA) and figures from research firm CoStar.

Monthly deal volume for November 2017 was down 31 percent year-over-year, with $27.9 billion in transactions, according to RCA. Only the hotel sector saw a year-over-year increase in sales volume in November at 3 percent, while the remaining core property sectors experienced double-digit declines. Industrial was the only sector that posted growth in deal volume overall year-to-date through November.

Read more...Investment Sales Took a Nose Dive before the End of the Year

For 2018, Freddie Mac Expects Modest Growth After Year Of Innovation via GlobeSt.com

It is looking unlikely that either Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae will have used the 2017 multifamily lending caps of $36.5 billion that the Federal Housing Finance Agency set for the GSEs.

If so, it will be a telling development for a few reasons: one, it indicates that the uncapped businesses by the GSEs flourished for the year and two, it suggests that the reduced cap of $35 billion each that the FHFA set for 2018 should not hamper the multifamily finance market.

Read more...For 2018, Freddie Mac Expects Modest Growth After Year Of Innovation | GlobeSt.com

Thursday, January 4, 2018

It’s 8 Months Running for Price Declines via GlobeSt.com

Annual pricing gains have reached a new low for the current cycle, Ten-X Commercial said Wednesday in reporting its latest Commercial Real Estate Nowcast. Commercial pricing rose just 0.3% month-to-month in December, and is up just 1% from December 2016, marking the weakest appreciation pace since the downturn. “Despite positive economic news and a new tax law that should benefit CRE, investor sentiment has been quite weak, leading to a startling eighth straight month of pricing contraction for the sector,” says chief economist Peter Muoio.

Read more...It’s 8 Months Running for Price Declines | GlobeSt.com

Wednesday, January 3, 2018

Investors Expect 2018 to be Another Solid Year for Apartment Sales via National Real Estate Investor

Investors are looking forward to another strong year for apartment sales.

“Going forward, there is a bit of renewed optimism… and we are still at an elevated level when it comes to transaction volume,” says John Sebree, first vice president and national director of the national multi housing group for Marcus & Millichap.

Investors bought fewer apartment properties in 2017 than they had the year before—but 2016 was a record-breaking year for apartment sales. The total dollar volume of apartment sales in 2017 was still greater than the historical average. And with apartment properties still desirable and yields and interest rates still relatively attractive, 2018 seems poised to match it.

Read more...Investors Expect 2018 to be Another Solid Year for Apartment Sales | National Real Estate Investor

Can I Say ‘No Pot In My Apartments’ When It’s Legal? via Rental Housing Journal

Property managers are often confused and seeking to better understand how to handle the issues of legal marijuana and medical marijuana when it comes to tenants and rental housing in their states.

Laws are changing all the time in many states, just as California did on January 1, 2018, as voters approve different levels of permission when it comes to marijuana. This leaves property managers trying to figure out what should be in their leases around the issue.

You may be able to ban smoking, but do you really know what your tenants are eating or growing in their apartments? Do you really want to know if they are good paying tenants?

Read moe...Can I Say ‘No Pot In My Apartments’ When It’s Legal?

Tuesday, January 2, 2018

Texas Economy Finishes the Year Firing on All Cylinders via Dallas Fed

The Texas economy continues to expand at a steady pace as payroll employment rebounds strongly in the wake of Hurricane Harvey. The Texas Business Outlook Surveys suggest continued growth in the state’s manufacturing and service sectors. Early benchmark data for job growth in the first half of the year was revised down slightly from an annualized pace of 3.0 percent to 2.6 percent. When incorporating this data and adjusting for the hurricane effects, the Texas Employment Forecast projects 2.4 percent growth this year, slightly below the previous estimate of 2.6 percent. Job growth in 2018 is expected to stay on a similar pace and above the state’s long-term trend of 2.1 percent.

Read more...Texas Economy Finishes the Year Firing on All Cylinders - Dallasfed.org

Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators Dec 2017 via Dallas Fed

The Dallas–Fort Worth economy expanded at a rapid clip in November. The Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes continued to post above-trend gains, as job growth was strong. Home affordability stayed low in Dallas in the third quarter and dipped in Fort Worth. Home prices rose further in both metros in part due to continued healthy job creation, which has been a driver for the DFW housing market.

Read more...Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators - Dallasfed.org

Supply Catches Up With Demand in Austin via Multi-Housing News Online

Austin’s multifamily market shifted down a gear in 2017, due to 2016’s strong wave of supply. As a result, rents contracted 0.3 percent year-over-year through October, trailing the 2.3 percent U.S. average. Continued construction pushed the occupancy rate to 94.6 percent as of September, down 70 basis points in 12 months. This figure is likely to keep falling in the short term, while the metro absorbs the new stock.

Read more...Supply Catches Up With Demand in Austin

Housing Market Trends: 2017 Year in Review, 2018 Outlook via Multifamily Executive Magazine

Based on housing market research published throughout the year, the Apartment List Rentonomics team has analyzed the most important trends of 2017 and determined their potential impact on housing in 2018.

Homeownership
Following 12 years of negative growth, from 69.2% in 2004 to 62.9% in 2016, the U.S. homeownership rate appears to have hit its bottom and even increased slightly in 2017, up to 63.9% as of the third quarter. 2016’s homeownership rate was the lowest since 1965, while 2017’s homeownership rate was the highest since 2014.

Read more...Housing Market Trends: 2017 Year in Review, 2018 Outlook | Multifamily Executive Magazine | Market-Rate Housing, Rents, Rent Trends, Supply and Demand, Affordable Housing, Preservation of Affordability, Rent Growth, Renters, Rent vs. Own, Apartment List, Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies