Turnover is typically low this time of year, which means the changes in effective rents only apply to a small quantity of units compared to prime leasing season during the second and third quarters. However, there are still important reasons for tracking monthly changes. First, any abnormal weakening in rent and occupancy growth could signal underlying economic conditions not yet picked up by the major employment data sources. In addition, if too deep of a hole is dug during the fourth quarter, there may be more pressure to push rents early the next year to make up for the decline.
So far, we are not seeing any macro-level indicators signaling a larger-than-normal seasonal decline this fourth quarter. Rent and occupancy growth this October was similar to what we reported for 2010, 2011, and 2012. Likewise, lease-up properties are absorbing well and offering very little in concessions even though new supply continues to increase.
As 2013 comes to a close, the delivery schedules for 2014 have started firming. Axiometrics has long expected that deliveries in 2014 would outpace the total for 2013.
Read more...October 2013 Apartment Market Summary via Axiometrics