Last November, I mentioned a recession probability chart from the St Louis Fed that was making the rounds, and that some people were misusing the chart to argue a new recession was starting in the US. Below is an update to the chart.
A few weeks later - also in November - the author, University of Oregon Professor Jeremy Piger, posted some FAQs and data for the chart online. Professor Piger writes:
Read more...Calculated Risk: Update: The Recession Probability Chart