During a conference call yesterday, New York City–based Reis hosted a fourth-quarter capital markets briefing and shared its 2012 commercial real estate outlook.
Ryan Severino, a senior economist at Reis, thinks transaction volume across commercial real estate could be on the brink of resurgence in 2012. But he followed the optimistic statement with words of caution, warning that this year should be a challenging one for the capital markets. Reis issued a modest outlook for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBSs) in 2012, following signs of progress seen in issuance levels toward the end of 2011. Yet the slight improvement rolling into January won’t likely be enough to stave off the effects of upcoming term defaults.
“The key concern is debt maturation in 2012. Expect there to be more defaults, and look for us to reap what we had sewn back in 2007,” said Severino, referring to the large number of five-year term loans set to expire this year. He believes there will be opportunity to refinance in 2012 but that it will almost certainly be a bumpy ride, and he warned investors to “buckle up.”
Read more...Reis Warns Commercial Real Estate Market to “Buckle Up” in 2012 - Debt - Multifamily Executive Magazine
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