CMBS Refinancing Prospect Dims as 2007 Deals Mature, S&P Says - Businessweek

More than half of commercial mortgages packaged into bonds in 2007 and coming due next year may fail to refinance as maturities reach the most ever and lenders pull back, according to Standard & Poor’s.

About $55 billion of property loans sold as securities come due in 2012, with $19 billion of those originated in 2007, S&P analyst Larry Kay said in a report today. The five-year mortgages have a 50 percent to 60 percent likelihood of failure to refinance, the New York-based analyst said.

Next year will “usher in the first major wave of maturities from the 2007 vintage, which were issued during a frothy period at the peak of the market,” Kay said. “Retrenchment in the capital markets and among other lenders in the third quarter of 2011, which has continued into the current quarter, dims the refinancing prospects.”

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