Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete multi-family projects - and multi-family starts were at a record low last year - builders are on track to complete a record low, or near record low, number of multi-family units this year.
The following graph shows the lag between multi-family starts and completions using a 12 month rolling total.
The blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions. Since multifamily starts collapsed in 2009, completions collapsed in 2010.
The rolling 12 month total for starts (blue line) has been increasing all year. It now appears multi-family starts will be around 170 thousand units in 2011, up from 104 thousand units in 2010. That is a 60%+ increase in multi-family starts - but from a very low level.
Read more...Calculated Risk: Multi-family Starts and Completions, Record Low Total Completions in 2011
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