Fourth Quarter 2011 Survey of Professional Forecasters - Philadelphia Fed

Forecasters Predict Lower Growth and Higher Unemployment in 2012 and 2013

The outlook for growth and unemployment in the U.S. economy looks a little weaker now than it did three months ago, according to 45 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict lower real GDP growth and higher unemployment rates in 2012 and 2013 than they did in August. Our panelists expect real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 2.6 percent this quarter, unchanged from the previous estimate. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters see real GDP growing 1.8 percent in 2011 (1.7 percent previously). The forecasters predict real GDP will grow 2.4 percent in 2012 (2.6 percent previously) and 2.7 percent in 2013 (2.9 percent previously). The downward revision in 2012 and 2013 is accompanied by an upward revision for growth in 2014.

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