Job Gains Move from “Moderate” to “Modest” in July via Axiometrics

The U.S. economy is still improving, but at a pace the Fed now calls modest. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that total nonfarm seasonally adjusted (SA) payroll employment gained only 162,000 jobs in July, below the consensus forecast of 184,000 jobs. Some analysts anticipated as many as 240,000 jobs in the BLS report as ADP had reported a gain of 200,000 private-sector jobs in July and their figures have undercounted the BLS figures by about 40,000 jobs for the last six months.

The roller coaster of revisions continued as well. Last month’s upward revisions for the previous two months (May and April) were followed by downward revisions to June and May. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised from 195,000 to 176,000, and June was revised from 195,000 to 188,000. Combined, these revisions resulted in 26,000 fewer jobs than previously reported.

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