Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey December 2020 via Dallas Fed

Activity in the Texas service sector returned to positive territory in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, rose from -0.7 in November to 4.2 in December, indicating a modest increase in activity.

Read more...Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey December 2020 via Dallas Fed

Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators December 31, 2020 via Dallas Fed

Dallas–Fort Worth’s economic recovery waned in November, following strong growth in October. Employment growth moderated, and movements in the Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes were mixed. Initial unemployment claims dipped in the second week of December after rising in the previous week. Low-wage workers appear to have been the hardest hit by the pandemic. Multifamily permits rose for the third straight month in November but were down year to date relative to 2019. Housing market indicators pointed to slight improvement in affordability in third quarter 2020.

Read more...Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators December 31, 2020 via Dallas Fed

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey December 2020 via Dallas Fed

Expansion in Texas factory activity picked up in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rebounded from 7.2 to 25.5, indicating an acceleration in output growth.

Other measures of manufacturing activity also point to stronger growth this month.

Read more...Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey December 2020 via Dallas Fed

Did Congress Give the Multifamily Community Enough Aid? via GlobeSt

Congress passed a $900 billion stimulus package this week, which contained some— but not all—of the measures that the commercial real estate industry had been seeking.

Among the measures is a $25 billion rental assistance program to be distributed by state and local governments with populations of 200,000 or more, with each state receiving $200 million.

Read more...Did Congress Give the Multifamily Community Enough Aid? via GlobeSt

Relief Bill ‘Good for the Industry,’ Apartment Groups Say via Multi-Housing News

After months of back-and-forth between lawmakers in Congress, an agreement was finally reached on Sunday night between Republicans and Democrats for the next COVID-19 relief stimulus bill. For the multifamily industry, the timing was crucial, coming weeks before two key measures expired: the federal eviction moratorium and additional unemployment insurance that was part of the CARES Act.

Late Monday evening, the $900 billion package was passed by Congress and sent to President Donald Trump for his signature. According to the Associated Press, the 5,593-page bill is the longest in history.

Read more...Relief Bill ‘Good for the Industry,’ Apartment Groups Say via Multi-Housing News

Texas Employment Forecast 12/18/20 via Dallas Fed

Texas employment grew 4.0 percent annualized in November after increasing a slightly revised 10.9 percent in October. While jobs have increased since May, they are still down sharply from December 2019. The Texas Leading Index increased for the seventh consecutive month in November, indicating continued positive growth over the next six months.

Using a top-down model based on national forecasts, COVID-19 infection rates and oil futures prices, we estimate that job growth will weaken further in December.

Read more...Texas Employment Forecast 12/18/20 via Dallas Fed

National Multifamily Report – November 2020 via Multi-Housing News

Multifamily rents declined for the sixth month in a row, declining by 0.5 percent in November year-over-year, according to a Yardi Matrix report of 127 markets. Despite this, more than 100 secondary and tertiary markets are performing better than the national average.

Once again, markets such as the Inland Empire, Sacramento, Phoenix and Indianapolis led the pack in terms of rent growth, increasing 6.6 percent, 5.9 percent, 4.3 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively.

Read more...National Multifamily Report – November 2020 via Multi-Housing News

CRE Pricing Marks Fastest Monthly Increase Since Pandemic’s Start via GlobeSt

While commercial property prices grew at the fastest rate since the beginning of the pandemic in November, the gains weren’t universal.

Real Capital Analytics’ National All-Property Index increased by 5.7% year-over-year in November, but it was the strong price gains in the apartment and industrial sectors that really drove those increases. Industrial prices climbed 9.5% in November, though deal volume is down 26% YOY in the sector, according to RCA. That is the shallowest drop among the major income-producing property types during the pandemic year.

Read more...CRE Pricing Marks Fastest Monthly Increase Since Pandemic’s Start via GlobeSt

What the $900B Relief Package Holds for Multifamily via Multi-Housing News

Congressional leaders have unveiled the final details of the $900 billion bipartisan relief package expected to pass final votes in both chambers of Congress today. Apart from one-off direct payments to individuals, the package includes a revival of the Paycheck Protection Program for small businesses, $25 billion in rental assistance and an extension of the federal eviction moratorium.

Read more...What the $900B Relief Package Holds for Multifamily via Multi-Housing News

As pandemic deepens, Texas’ unemployment rate rises to 8.1% in November via Dallas Morning News

The unemployment rate in Texas jumped to 8.1% in November, up from 6.9% in October, as COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths continued to rise.

Texas’ rate easily topped the national unemployment rate of 6.7% and has not been below the U.S. mark since August.

Texas also was among just seven states reporting statistically significant increases in the unemployment rate last month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Twenty-five states and the U.S. recorded declines in the metric for November.

Read more...As pandemic deepens, Texas’ unemployment rate rises to 8.1% in November, easily eclipsing U.S. rate via Dallas Morning News

Beware the Grey Swans of 2021 via GlobeSt

Without a doubt, 2020 was the year of the Black Swan event. No one outside of epidemiologist circles had foreseen a pandemic, and very few were prepared for its effects on the economy. With vaccine distribution underway, 2021 has a brighter outlook.

Still, there are risks to the economy. Fortunately, these risks are a known quantity—grey swans, as S&P Global Market Intelligence calls them in a recent post.

Read more...Beware the Grey Swans of 2021 via GlobeSt

Class C Apartment Rent Cuts Continue for Second Month via RealPage

Throughout most of the pandemic, the nation’s most affordable apartment niche managed to avoid lowering rents like the more expensive Class A and B product lines. That changed in October, and Class C operators reduced rents again in November.

Following a 1% year-over-year cut in October, Class C product logged rent change of -0.5% in November.

Read more...Class C Apartment Rent Cuts Continue for Second Month via RealPage

DFW dethrones Manhattan as nation's top CRE investment market, new report says via Dallas Business Journal

While every commercial real estate market has been impacted by the pandemic, North Texas was impacted the least of all U.S. markets.

This is according to new data from Real Capital Analytics, which ranked Dallas-Fort Worth as the No. 1 market for commercial real estate deals between January and November this year.

While total deal volume year-over-year has decreased by 28 percent in DFW, the region has seen $15.39 billion in commercial real estate deals close as of November.

Read more...DFW dethrones Manhattan as nation's top CRE investment market, new report says via Dallas Business Journal

Rental Applications Drop 10% in 2020 via Multifamily Executive Magazine

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a big impact on rents and leasing activity in 2020, according to RentCafe’s year-end report. To get the big-picture overview, the firm analyzed 5.8 million renter applications nationwide from RentGrow and rent data from Yardi Matrix.

The findings revealed several trends heading into 2021.

Rental activity has been 10% slower, with a shorter rental season that started after a two-month delay caused by stay-at-home orders. While the busiest renting season typically is from March to August, this year it didn’t kick off until May with a 27% monthly increase in renter activity. The moving season also was cut short, lasting for about two months, as renter movement dropped by 13% in July.

Read more...Rental Applications Drop 10% in 2020 via Multifamily Executive Magazine

Vaccine Approval Could Mark a Turning Point in CRE Price Discovery via NREI

Investors hoping to cash in on a COVID-19 pricing discounts may see opportunities slip away as emergency-use approval of the first vaccine against in the virus was granted to Pfizer and with availability expected to grow as other firms gain approvals in the coming weeks and months.

The coming widespread distribution of vaccines could very well prove to be the long-awaited light at the end of the tunnel for some struggling assets. Many buyers in the market have been hoping to negotiate at least some COVID-19 discount on pricing, even a slight five percent to 10 percent discount based on weaker rent growth. “I think there could still be some deals made in that range, but the combination of the vaccine outlook combined with more and more active liquidity in debt markets are going to make it more difficult to find those opportunities in the near term,” says David Bitner, head of Americas Capital Markets Research at Cushman & Wakefield.

Read more...Vaccine Approval Could Mark a Turning Point in CRE Price Discovery via NREI

U.S. Poised for Wave of Evictions in January as Federal Ban Expires via WSJ

Millions of U.S. renters face the prospect of eviction in January unless federal officials extend protections put in place during the Covid-19 pandemic.

That month is when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s ban on evictions is set to expire. The moratorium protects tenants who have missed monthly rent payments from being thrown out of their homes if they declare financial hardship. The CDC ordered the halt on evictions under the Public Health Service Act, which allows the federal government to enact regulations that help stop the spread of infectious diseases.

Read more...U.S. Poised for Wave of Evictions in January as Federal Ban Expires via WSJ

Multifamily Rent Collections Down 24% in December via GlobeSt

Apartment rent payments continued to decline in December. As of December 10, rent collections were down 24% from March collections, according to research from Rentec Direct, which aggregates rent collection data to analyze the impact of the pandemic.

Rent payments continue to trend well below March collections; however, payments have improved since September 2020, when collections were 35% below March and a record low for the pandemic. In October collections were down 28%, and in November, payments were 27% below March.

Read more...Multifamily Rent Collections Down 24% in December via GlobeSt

ALN Monthly Market Stats December 2020 via ALN Apartment Data

ALN Data just released their November 2020 market stats on occupancy and rents for over 80 markets. In Texas, it includes DFW, Austin, Houston, San Antonio, Lubbock, Amarillo, Abilene, Corpus Christi and more. It is a must read from a great provider of apartment data.

Read more...ALN Monthly Market Stats December 2020 via ALN Apartment Data

Mark Cuban: Dallas is best place in Texas for tech HQ relocations via Dallas Business Journal

The Dallas region’s most well-known tech entrepreneur stepped up for his own area after Austin got a big win with a massive database and software company.

Mark Cuban took to Twitter to talk up Dallas over the weekend and potential moves by companies out of Northern California. The post followed news that Oracle — sometimes called “Big Red” — was moving its headquarters out of the Silicon Valley and to Austin.

Read more...Mark Cuban: Dallas is best place in Texas for tech HQ relocations via Dallas Business Journal

Big-city apartment rents are seeing big declines during pandemic, except in Dallas via Dallas Morning News

Some big-city markets are seeing huge declines in apartment rents thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Looking nationwide at one-bedroom units, monthly rents are still up about 1% from a year ago. But in some of the biggest U.S. apartment markets, there have been huge declines in monthly rental rates.

The biggest drops are in San Francisco, where the median rent on a one-bedroom apartment has fallen more than 27% during the last year.

Read more...Big-city apartment rents are seeing big declines during pandemic, except in Dallas via Dallas Morning News

Single-Family Permits Keep Climbing, Multifamily Levels Of via RealPage

Multifamily permits and starts have plateaued in recent months, while single-family activity has surged.

Roughly 365,000 building permits for multifamily construction were issued on a seasonally adjusted annual rate in October. Permit levels were down 5.9% from September and more than 30% from last year. Multifamily permits have plateaued, averaging at about 380,000 units since August.

Read more...Single-Family Permits Keep Climbing, Multifamily Levels Of via RealPage

Houston Economic Indicators December 2020 via Dallas Fed

Local employment data show further improvement in October, though Houston continued to lag the rest of Texas due to weakness in the energy sector. Higher-frequency data (number of hourly employees working) suggest that the recovery weakened in November and early December when accounting for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Read more... Houston Economic Indicators December 2020 via Dallas Fed

Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators December 2020 via Dallas Fed

Dallas–Fort Worth’s recovery from the economic effects of COVID-19 progressed further in October. Payrolls expanded broadly, unemployment dipped and the Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes rose. Activity in the housing market remained a bright spot, characterized by soaring sales, prices and construction activity. Apartment rent collections in November slightly trailed both October and year-earlier levels.

Read more...Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators December 2020 via Dallas Fed

A Look at Where the Multifamily Market Stands: NAREE via Multi-Housing News

As 2020 comes to a close, many in the multifamily industry are looking back on the unprecedented events of the year and how they impacted the market. During the National Association of Real Estate Editors’ annual conference Dec. 9-10, Editorial Director of Multi-Housing News and Commercial Property Executive Suzann Silverman moderated a panel in which she spoke to National Multifamily Housing Council’s Vice President of Research Caitlin Sugrue Walter on how multifamily fundamentals have fared this year compared to previous years and where things stand on major issues like rent collections and potential stimulus relief.

Read more...A Look at Where the Multifamily Market Stands: NAREE via Multi-Housing News

The Multifamily Industry Preps for Permanent Remote Work via GlobeSt

Before the pandemic, remote work was already growing in the US. In 2019, work-from-home employees accounted for as much as 11.9% of the total labor market. During the pandemic, that number has shot up to 35%, according to a new report from Newmark. While most of these workers will return to the office once the pandemic ends, it is clear that the remote-work segment of the market will grow significantly.

Read more...The Multifamily Industry Preps for Permanent Remote Work via GlobeSt

Where Value-Add Investing Stands via Multi-Housing News

The practice of purchasing an underperforming multifamily asset at a discount, implementing significant renovations and raising rental prices, has grown in popularity over the last several years. But like much else in the multifamily industry, value-add investment suddenly became the subject of uncertainty when COVID-19 took hold in early 2020.

Value-add apartment sales totaled $32 billion in transaction volume in 2018—16 percent of all multifamily deals—according to Real Capital Analytics. But the unpredictability of the pandemic caused many investors to pull back or put deals on pause, and to reexamine their business strategies. The second quarter represented the lowest multifamily investment sales for any quarter in almost a decade.

Read more...Where Value-Add Investing Stands via Multi-Housing News

These are the DFW cities with the most new apartments via Dallas Business Journal

Dallas-Fort Worth is forecast to construct more new apartment units in 2020 than any other U.S. metro area. If that happens, DFW will push 40,000 new units this year, topping the charts for the third consecutive year.

So far this year within DFW, Frisco, Carrollton, Farmers Branch, North Fort Worth and Addison are leading the way in terms of additional units built to date and cities with the most multifamily construction in the pipeline, according to an analysis by Richardson-based RealPage Inc.

Read more...These are the DFW cities with the most new apartments via Dallas Business Journal

Austin Economic Indicators December 2020 via Dallas Fed

The Austin economy continued to recover in October. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated as recent job growth was positive in most industries, and the unemployment rate declined. Regional consumer spending continues to increase and is well above pre-COVID-19 levels. Office space demand continued to weaken, building permits deteriorated slightly and home inventories were unchanged.

Read more...Austin Economic Indicators December 2020 via Dallas Fed

Apartment Values are Coming Back via GlobeSt

When COVID hit, transactions in the apartment market, like many commercial real estate sectors, ground to a halt.

For a short period, there was a 5% to 10% discount on deals that did move in the summer, according to Noah E. Hochman, co-chief investment officer and head of Capital Markets for TruAmerica.

But that didn’t last long.

Read more...Apartment Values are Coming Back via GlobeSt

DFW cuts year-over-year job loss to under 100,000 for first time in pandemic era via Dallas Morning News

North Texas is making steady progress in recouping jobs lost during the COVID-19 era.

New data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that Dallas-Fort Worth picked up nearly 62,000 jobs in October, the most recent month available, to cut its year-over-year losses to fewer than 100,000 for the first time since the pandemic began.

Read more...DFW cuts year-over-year job loss to under 100,000 for first time in pandemic era via Dallas Morning News

Multifamily Rent Trends are Back on Track via GlobeSt

Although this year’s peak season was significantly disrupted due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Apartment List’s national index has stabilized back to a more typical trend during the past few months. Rents fell by 0.5% last month, which is consistent with historical rental trends in which rents have declined 0.5% from October to November in each of the last three years. Year-over-year, national rents are now down 1.3%.

Read more...Multifamily Rent Trends are Back on Track via GlobeSt

Eleventh District Beige Book 12/2/20 via Dallas Fed

The Eleventh District economy expanded at a modest pace, but activity in most industries remained below normal levels. Recovery in the manufacturing, retail, and services sectors slowed. The housing market continued to outperform expectations, but office leasing remained weak. Overall loan volume fell, though residential real estate lending continued to be robust. Energy activity remained depressed but showed some signs of improvement. Employment rose modestly, and several firms said weak demand and uncertainty about the course of the pandemic and/or related regulations were a drag on hiring. Input costs rose moderately, while selling prices were flat to up slightly. Outlooks were generally positive but uncertain, with political uncertainty and the trajectory of the pandemic weighing heavily on growth expectations for 2021.

Read more...Eleventh District Beige Book 12/2/20 via Dallas Fed

Look at Which City is Leading the US in CRE Deals via GlobeSt

In a year of firsts, another record has been set in commercial real estate. In normal years, Manhattan would occupy the top spot for US transaction volume, hands down. At various times of market disruption, Los Angeles would topple Manhattan for shorter periods, but this year, Dallas has logged more time at the top of the leader board, or three consecutive quarters, than either city, according to research by Real Capital Analytics.

Read more...Look at Which City is Leading the US in CRE Deals via GlobeSt

Homebuyers Brace for Pain in a Post-Pandemic Market: Conor Sen via NREI

As coronavirus vaccines approach a widespread rollout, the next six months of economic activity are going to be dominated by the impact of society's growing immunity — and easing fears. Combined with historically low levels of housing inventory, that could make the traditional spring homebuying season a particularly frustrating one for buyers.

Read more...Homebuyers Brace for Pain in a Post-Pandemic Market: Conor Sen via NREI