Risk Premium Still High for Apartments via National Real Estate Investor

By at least one measure, the yield on investments in apartment properties still hasn’t matched the level of the real estate boom. That’s the “risk premium” that investors demand for apartments compared to Treasury bonds—a supposedly risk-free investment.

That means that cap rates on apartment buildings could yet inch even lower.

“The potential for commercial real estate risk premiums to edge lower and interest rates to resist the long-awaited increase may point to lower cap rates,” says Peter Muoio, executive vice president with Auction.com research.

Read more...Risk Premium Still High for Apartments | Multifamily content from National Real Estate Investor

DFW: Marcus & Millichap 4Q 2014 apartment report via Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

While apartment completions in DFW have surged, the vacancy rate has retreated to its lowest level on record since 2001, according to Marcus & Millichap's Fourth Quarter 2014 ApartmentResearch Market Report.

This tightening in the market can be attributed to strong job creation and nation-leading net migration and household formation driving renter demand to new heights.

Read more...DFW: Marcus & Millichap 4Q 2014 apartment report

Houston: Marcus & Millichap 4Q 2014 apartment report via Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

Houston ranks atop most U.S. metros for job creation, household formation and net migration, which supports expectations for the local apartment market to finish the year strong, according to Marcus & Millichap's Fourth Quarter 2014 ApartmentResearch Market Report.

Multifamily permit activity jumped 74 percent to nearly 24,600 units during the past 12 months. During 2014, Houston’s prime renter-age cohort will grow by 1.9 percent, or 26,100 residents, and developers will complete 13,100 apartments, a sizable increase from 2013, when 9,600 units were delivered.

Read more...Houston: Marcus & Millichap 4Q 2014 apartment report

Global Slump Could Reach US in 2015 via GlobeSt.com

A slowdown in economic growth globally isn’t breaking the stride of the US economy or commercial real estate, the National Association of Realtors said Monday, predicting that the momentum will carry forth into the new year. However, NAR’s quarterly forecast hints at a potential drag on US growth as overseas markets weaken.

“GDP growth in the fourth quarter will be sluggish at around 2% behind stalling exports,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “Although GDP will likely climb to near 3% in 2015, the current pace of job growth could slow and ultimately impact commercial real estate activity if sluggishness in the global economy persists.”

Read more...Global Slump Could Reach US in 2015 - Daily News Article - GlobeSt.com

Camden’s Campo: No Evidence of Overbuilding in Multifamily Sector via REIT.com

Ric Campo, chairman and CEO of Camden Property Trust (NYSE: CPT), joined REIT.com for a CEO Spotlight video interview at REITWorld 2014: NAREIT’s Annual Convention for All Things REIT at the Atlanta Marriott Marquis.

Camden is a Houston-based REIT that owns and operates apartment communities across the United States.

Campo provided an overview of supply fundamentals in the multifamily sector.

“We are definitely not seeing overbuilding at this point,” he said. While construction is at peak levels compared with the recent past, the new supply is acting to replenish the dearth of new accomodation that occurred during the financial crisis, Campo explained.

Read more...Camden’s Campo: No Evidence of Overbuilding in Multifamily Sector | REIT.com

Texas Manufacturing Posts Slower Growth, Says Dallas Fed Survey via Dallas Fed

Texas factory activity increased again in November, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

Texas produces more than 11 percent of total manufactured goods in the United States, ranking second behind California in factory production.

The production index—a key measure of state manufacturing conditions—fell from 13.7 to 6, indicating output growth slowed in November.

Read more...Texas Manufacturing Posts Slower Growth, Says Dallas Fed Survey - Dallas Fed

Do Apartment Fundamentals and Valuations Line Up? via Property Management Insider

In the previous blog titled, “Structural Shift or Mean Reversion: Exploring the NOI Profit Margin Cycle,” we discussed the importance of the profit margin cycle in relation to the pro forma analysis. This piece will expand upon the original idea by including a valuation metric: price-to-sales ratio. A price-to-sales ratio is a common metric used in stock valuation. To derive the ratio, an analyst will divide a company’s price per share by the most recent annual revenue per share and compare the results to peer companies. Similarly, we will apply the same logic to real estate, utilizing NCREIF data with two key distinctions. The price-to-sales ratio used in the stock valuation is based on market values and annual revenue, but the analysis for this blog is based on NCREIF appraised values and quarterly operating revenue.

At the national level, the U.S. apartment sector is valued at 48.1 times the 3rd quarter 2014 revenue figure compared to the long-term average of roughly a 40 multiple. On the surface, this suggests the apartment sector is overvalued relative to the long-term norm.

Read more...Do Apartment Fundamentals and Valuations Line Up? | Property Management Insider

Commercial Real Estate Is Now a Market of the Haves and Have Nots via WSJ

The rebounding real estate market isn’t treating all commercial property owners equally.

Properties like apartment buildings and downtown office buildings have recovered all the value they lost during the bust and then some. But other types of properties, like suburban office buildings, are still worth a lot less than they were before the crash.

Read more...Commercial Real Estate Is Now a Market of the Haves and Have Nots - Developments - WSJ

Texas breaks jobs record for third consecutive month via - Dallas Business Journal

Texas set a record for annual annual job growth while seeing its unemployment rate drop in October.

Numbers released by the Texas Workforce Commission show the state added 35,200 seasonally-adjusted jobs for the month, bringing its total to 421,900 total non-farm jobs for the year. Those figures set the record for jobs added for the third consecutive month.

Read more...Texas breaks jobs record for third consecutive month - Dallas Business Journal

Renter Satisfaction Continues Upward Trend According to Latest Kingsley Associates Report via MultifamilyBiz.com

According to Kingsley Associates' latest analysis, 76.4 percent of apartment renters rated their overall satisfaction as "good" or "excellent" for the 12-month period ending September 30, 2014. Conversely, renewal intent has continued to decline now for the past two quarters and has reached another all-time low. Only 53.5 percent of residents responded that they "probably would" or "definitely would" renew their lease, down .3 percent from the prior period and 6.0 percent since Q4 2011.

“Our data shows that an increasing proportion of residents, who appear perfectly satisfied with their apartments, are expressing hesitation to renew their leases primarily due to price escalation.”

Read more...Renter Satisfaction Continues Upward Trend According to Latest Kingsley Associates Report | MultifamilyBiz.com

Houston Economic Indicators November 2014 via Dallas Fed

Employment increased at an annualized rate of 6.4 percent in September after growing a revised 3.8 percent in August and 5.8 percent in July. Government grew the fastest, adding 4,800 jobs as public education employment ticked up in September. Construction and mining was the second-fastest category, adding 3,100 jobs. No category lost jobs in September. The Houston-area unemployment rate fell three-tenths of a percent to 5.0 in September. The rate was 5.2 percent in Texas and 5.9 percent in the U.S.

The Houston Business-Cycle Index advanced at a blistering 10.4 percent in September after rising a revised 5.3 percent and 8.8 percent in August and July. Job growth was broad-based across industries, demonstrating particular strength in energy, construction and public education. With energy prices still at healthy levels for Houston industries, the construction boom underway for petrochemicals and a tailwind coming from the U.S. economy, the Houston outlook remains positive.

Read more...Houston Economic Indicators November 2014 via Dallas Fed

Apartment Market Statistics: November 2014 via Multi-Housing News Online

Multifamily housing starts hit 423,000 units in July, reports the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The seasonally adjusted figure, for multifamily housing of five or more units, represents an increase of 33 percent over the month before.

Meanwhile, apartments investment sales in the second quarter jumped to a multi-year high of $125,063 per unit in the second quarter, compared to $108,485 in first quarter 2014, according to PPR/Costar.

Read more...APARTMENT MARKET STATISTICS: November 2014 | Multi-Housing News Online

How will Cap Rates Behave when Interest Rates Jump? via Commercial Property Executive

This question, of course, is loaded heavily by the increasingly debatable assumption that interest rates indeed will rise in the near future. Yet for the sake of discussion, let us accept the premise that the Fed will soon engineer a modest uptick in, among other rates, the 10-year treasury. Let us further presume that this increase will come as a result of improved employment and a return to healthy inflation growth.

Dime-store wisdom tells us that cap rates will move closely with interest rates, reflecting a simple premium for real estate over treasuries. Reality, however, has proven far more complex. To make sense of this dysfunctional relationship, economists have expressed cap rates in various algebraic terms that can be summarized as follows:

Read more...How will Cap Rates Behave when Interest Rates Jump? | Commercial Property Executive

Lenders' Insatiable Appetite For CRE via GlobeSt.com

The commercial real estate lender community shows no signs of scaling back its appetite for business, according to the Fall 2014 survey of Commercial Real Estate Lender Sentiment, a report issued by the Real Estate Lenders Association and Chandan Economics. In fact certain providers, such as CMBS lenders and life companies are expected to grow their market share – and that growth will most likely come at the expense of national and foreign banks, as well as relatively slower growth in agency lending.

There are several implications to these trends, Sam Chandan, CEO of Chandan Economics tells GlobeSt.com. One, the increasingly competitive environment leaves lenders little room to push the envelope much further. Two, the envelope is being pushed as much as possible, which, means loosening underwriting standards.

Read more...Lenders' Insatiable Appetite For CRE - Daily News Article - GlobeSt.com

Millennials want to save, many can't via USA Today

Millennials are stuck between having a financially responsible mindset and having the resources and discipline to pull off long-term results, finds a USA TODAY/Bank of America Better Money Habits poll of Millennials.

The survey of 1,001 people ages 18-34 reveals a disconnect between the way Millennials think about their finances and what they're actually able to achieve. They say they have good financial habits, though the majority still worry about their financial situations. They think they'll be at least as well off, if not more, than their parents — yet more than a third still receive financial support from family. They say they're good at living within their means, but many are living paycheck to paycheck. And while this age group has prioritized reducing debt, many are unable to put away emergency savings simultaneously.

Read more...Millennials want to save, many can't

Renter-Age Demographic Growth Boosts Austin Multifamily Market via Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

Thanks to continued growth in the renter-age demographic, local apartment operators will enjoy tight conditions and significant rent growth this year despite record-high completions, reports Marcus & Millichap in its latest market report.

"Strong job creation in the metro, particularly in the high-tech sector, remains a lure for young professionals," the report said. "This year, Austin’s 20- to 34-year-old age cohort will grow by an estimated 2.6 percent, which compares favorably with the 1 percent gain projected nationwide.

Read more...Renter-Age Demographic Growth Boosts Austin Multifamily Market via Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

Is Apartment Supply Heading to Where Households Are Forming? via Property Management Insider

What do household formation and apartment supply have in common? MPF Research looked at the relationship between total household growth and apartment supply growth among the top 50 U.S. metros, since the recession. Overall, we found that there is a linear relationship between the two. But by region, clear differences emerge, especially when viewed in light of employment growth over the same time period.

The chart below illustrates the relationships between employment growth, household formation and apartment inventory growth from 3rd quarter 2009 through 3rd quarter 2014.

Read more...Is Apartment Supply Heading to Where Households Are Forming? | Property Management Insider

Apartment Market Predictions: A Look at 2014 and Beyond (Webinar Recap) via Appfolio

We recently hosted a valuable webinar presented by Stephanie McCleskey of Axiometrics (the leading apartment market research organization). Stephanie shared fresh data from the housing market at the local and national level, with emphasis on the apartment market. Don’t miss what she had to say about how 2014 is rounding out, and what Axiometrics predicts for 2015!

Watch video...Apartment Market Predictions: A Look at 2014 and Beyond (Webinar Recap)

Apartment Trends Q3 2014 via ReisReports

Reis VP of Economics & Research, Dr. Victor Calanog, provides an update on the apartment sector performance for the second quarter of 2014.
The national vacancies rose 10 basis points to 4.2% during Q3 for the apartment sector.

Asking and effective rents increased by 1.1% on a quarterly basis.

Close to 200,000 units are expected to come online in 2014.

Watch Video...Apartment Trends Q3 2014 - ReisReports

CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increased in September via Calculated Risk

Here is a price index for commercial real estate that I follow.

From CoStar: Commercial Real Estate Price Surge Continues In Third Quarter

NATIONAL COMPOSITE INDICES CONTINUE TO CLIMB. Both the value-weighted and the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Indices of the CCRSI made strong gains in September 2014 to close the quarter. The value-weighted index, which is heavily influenced by core transactions, advanced by 1.9% in the month of September and 3.3% in the third quarter of 2014. The value-weighted index is now 2.8% above its prerecession high and continues to make solid gains. The equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index, which is heavily influenced by smaller non-core deals, increased by 1.3% in September and 4.2% in the third quarter of 2014.

Read more...Calculated Risk: CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increased in September

Austin Apartment Market Update September 2014 via oconnordata.com

All metrics for the Austin area multifamily sector recorded both positive and negative changes in September 2014.

Occupancy figures recorded both positive and negative figures for the classes for the month. Class A properties reported an increase of 0.03% over last month, and a decrease of 1.34% over last year. The largest increase over the month was noted for Class B properties. The largest annual increase was noted for Class B with an increase of 0.61%.

Read more...Austin Apartment Market Update September 2014

Dallas/Ft. Worth Apartment Market Update September 2014 via oconnordata.com

The key metrics for the Dallas/Fort Worth area multifamily sector recorded significant changes both over the month and over the year.

Over the month all the classes recorded mostly downward trends in terms of occupancy. Except Class A properties recorded an increase of 0.12% over previous month. On a year-over-year basis Class A properties recorded a decrease of 0.50%. The largest annual increase was noted for Class B properties with an increase of 0.31%.

Read more...Dallas/Ft. Worth Apartment Market Update September 2014

Commentary: The 'Texas Miracle' is more than oil via Dallas Business Journal

The economic juggernaut dubbed the "Texas Miracle" is powered by more than oil.

A reinvigorated oil and gas industry has rippled across the economy, but attributing our state's success to the energy sector alone would paint a half-finished picture. Smart policy, entrepreneurship and economic diversity have been the keys to Texas achieving the nation's largest economic growth, four years in a row.

The Texas economy is no one trick pony.

Read more...Commentary: The 'Texas Miracle' is more than oil - Dallas Business Journal

Houston Apartment Market Update September 2014 via oconnordata.com

Key metrics for the Houston area multifamily sector recorded both positive and negative changes in September 2014.

Occupancy figures for the classes recorded both positive and negative changes over the month. Class A recorded a decrease of 0.28% from previous month. The average went down by 1.50% over the year for Class A properties. The largest annual increase was noted for Class C properties with an average increase of 0.38% to close at 89.31%.

Read more...Houston Apartment Market Update September 2014

San Antonio Apartment Market Update September 2014 via oconnordata.com

Most key metrics of the San Antonio area multifamily sector recorded positive and negative changes in September 2014.

The occupancy figures recorded both positive and negative values for all the classes. For Class A properties, occupancy increased by 0.22% over the month to close at 93.02%; and decreased by 1.08% over the year.

Read more...San Antonio Apartment Market Update September 2014

Multifamily Showdown via CCIM Institute

Multifamily properties have been a hot commodity in recent years. And potential threats on the horizon in terms of looming interest rate hikes and a growing development pipeline have yet to cool investor enthusiasm.

“If you talk to any multifamily specialist across the country, particularly in the Sunbelt and on the coasts as well as in Chicago, the demand is through the roof,” says T. Sean Lance, CCIM, ALC, a founding partner at Vertica Partners in Tampa, Fla. That is certainly the case in Florida where capital is flowing into the state from domestic buyers as well as foreign investors from South America, Europe, and Canada.

Strong fundamentals and positive economic and demographic trends that support renter demand have stoked buyer interest.

Read more...Multifamily Showdown | CCIM Institute

Our Latest Texas Economic Outlook Report Available via Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

The November 2014 Outlook for the Texas Economy is now online. This month's report highlights Texas manufacturing exports.

The monthly report is written by Real Estate Center Research Economist Dr. Luis Torres, Chief Economist Dr. Mark Dotzur and Research Assistant Wayne Day.

Read more...Our Latest Texas Economic Outlook Report Available via Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

Risk Premium Declines with Cap Rates via GlobeSt.com

Graphically, the upward trend in commercial real estate sales volume since 2009 resembles the crest of an enormous wave, while the trend for risk premiums looks more like the trough of that wave. Even the highest-risk asset class in ’09—hotels, its premium at more than 7%—has seen its risk premium taper off to below 6%. That’s one of the insights to be gleaned from Auction.com’s Q3 Commercial Real Estate Market Monitor, issued Wednesday.

Read more...Risk Premium Declines with Cap Rates - Daily News Article - GlobeSt.com

Ten Things You Might Not Know About Today's Renter via Appfolio

Millions of dollars are spent each year studying the housing market. Buried in the tomes of research, are clues about resident “wish lists” and expectations. If you didn’t get a chance to attend the 2014 Multifamily Executive Conference, here are a few things you might not know about today’s renter.

#1 Long-term renters

Young adults are eager to own their own home someday, many don’t expect it to be a possibility until they hit their late thirties or early forties. More than 50% of respondents surveyed see themselves as homeowners in the future, but Millennials are most interested in homeownership. Only 28% of Gen-Xers, compared to 61% of Millennials, see themselves as homeowners five years from now.

Read more...Ten Things You Might Not Know About Today's Renter

Forbes ranks Texas No. 1 on Best States for Job Growth, No. 6 on Best And Worst States For Businesses lists via Dallas Business Journal

Texas is the top state for its current economic climate and future job growth in Forbes' annual Best States for Business study released this week.

But it only ranks No. 6 on Forbes' "The Best And Worst States For Business 2014" list.

Texas added 2.1 million jobs since 2000, more than twice as many as any other state, Forbes reports. Moody's Analytics expects Texas to have an annual job growth rate of 2.7 percent over the next five years — the fastest in the nation — ranking it No. 1 on Forbes' "Best States for Job Growth" list.

Read more...Forbes ranks Texas No. 1 on Best States for Job Growth, No. 6 on Best And Worst States For Businesses lists - Dallas Business Journal

The Urban Renter: Who Art Thou? via Metropolitan Capital Advisors

One trip down the tollway to Uptown/Downtown Dallas leaves me in utter amazement at the amount and quality of high-density multifamily projects under construction. Apartment development clearly appears to be riding the coattails of the biggest building boom in decades. With about 28,000 units under construction in North Texas, the Dallas/Fort Worth area is the fastest-growing apartment rental market in the country. It kind of makes you wonder who is going to lease all of these apartments, and moreover, who’s got the money to pay $2.00 + sf for apartment rentals?

Read more...The Urban Renter: Who Art Thou? | Metropolitan Capital Advisors

Commercial Market on Road to Recovery, Say Realtors® via realtor.org

While economic activity was mixed during the first half of the year, industry experts expressed confidence that the commercial real estate market is on the rise during the Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum at the 2014 REALTORS® Conference & Expo.

National Association of Realtors® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun joined leading investment experts during a panel discussion about recent trends in commercial real estate markets. The panelists agreed that the improvements seen in the economy as a whole will spur the commercial market forward.

Read more...Commercial Market on Road to Recovery, Say Realtors® | realtor.org

Job Growth, Rent Growth Match Up via GlobeSt.com

Nationally, monthly employment growth has exceeded 200,000 jobs for the past nine months. Locally, the progress has been more variable, and one indicator of this is the correlation between job growth and rent growth, which dovetail 83% of the time.

When these two statistics don't jibe, a market experiences “high job growth and low effective rent growth or vice versa, according to a report from Dallas-based Axiometrics, which examined the top 54 apartment markets to see how each fared. “In such situations, something other than job growth influences effective rent growth.”

Read more...Job Growth, Rent Growth Match Up - Daily News Article - GlobeSt.com

Dallas ranks first for small business job growth in October - Dallas Business Journal

Dallas regained its spot as the top metropolitan statistical area for small business job growth in October.

Nationally, job growth remained steady, growing at just 0.23 percent over the past 12 months. Still, the U.S. is maintaining an index number of 100.84, indicating a strong job climate, according to the study conducted by payroll services company Paychex and business analyst firm IHS.

However, Dallas has been the country's star for several months, only dropping its ranking as a top job creator in September. Officials are attributing that to a random fluctuation in the market.

Read more...Dallas ranks first for small business job growth in October - Dallas Business Journal

Austin Economic Indicators November 2014 via Dallas Fed

Austin’s economy continued to grow briskly in September. Payroll employment expanded robustly at 3.5 percent, driven by strong hiring in the private sector. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2 from 4.4 percent in August. Housing markets remained strong, and tight inventories, strong construction hiring and sustained price appreciation are likely to drive continued growth. Manufacturing in Austin slowed in September, with both employment and production showing signs of moderation from earlier in the year.

Read more...Austin Economic Indicators November 2014 via Dallas Fed

On a Metro Level, Employment Recovery Remains Uneven via Property Management Insider

Taking a step back from the multifamily market, let’s take a look at what nearly all tenants need to occupy an apartment unit – a job. The good news is the U.S. economy has experienced monthly growth in nonfarm payrolls for 48 consecutive months. For the purpose of this piece, MPF Research looked at the current employment levels among the core 100 U.S. metros relative to their pre-recession levels to get a sense for the underlying strength of the economic recovery. Five years after the recession officially ended, most metros have returned to pre-recession employment levels. In that vein, the improvement in the labor market can be best described as slow and steady. The chart below illustrates the prolonged recovery, but more importantly depicts the consistent upward trend in the number of metros moving above pre-recession employment levels.

Read more...On a Metro Level, Employment Recovery Remains Uneven | Property Management Insider

Texas Economic Indicators November 2014 via Dallas Fed

The Texas economy continues to expand, with employment growing at a 3.2 percent annual rate in Sep­tember. Texas existing-home sales and single-family permits increased in September, while housing starts declined. Texas exports edged up in August. Manufacturing activity in October rose at a slightly slower rate than in September,accord­ing to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

Texas employment rose at a 3.2 percent annualized pace in September,faster than the nation's 2.2 percent increase. Texas gained 30,800 jobs in September after add­ing 38,400 jobs in August. Current Texas employment stands at 11.6 million, accord­ ing to the payroll survey (CES).

The Texas unemployment rate fell to 5.2 percent in September.The Texas rate con­tinues to be lower than the U.S.rate,which fell to 5.9 percent in September.

Read more...Texas Economic Indicators November 2014 via Dallas Fed

Rents skyrocket well beyond wages via CNBC.com

Lease a two-bedroom apartment in Miami, and you could be putting more than half your salary into the rent check. The same is true for Los Angeles and New York City—and it's only getting worse, according to a report from real estate company Trulia.

Rents are rising most in the local housing markets where renters are already stretched thinnest. In the five least affordable markets, rents are now 7.8 percent higher than they were a year ago.

"Rents are rising because of strong demand that supply hasn't kept up with. Nearly all the new households are renters, and young people moving out of their parents' homes will keep fueling rental demand," said Jed Kolko, chief economist at Trulia.

Read more...Rents skyrocket well beyond wages

ENERGY STAR® includes Broader Scope of Apartments in Rating System via Property Management Insider

The multifamily housing industry finally has its long-awaited energy rating system that now covers the whole nine yards.

In September, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rolled out its new 1-100 ENERGY STAR rating system, culminating a three-year effort to create an equitable energy efficiency scoring system for multifamily properties. Beginning Sept. 16, apartments of all shapes and sizes – existing or new – began inputting energy usage data and other information to get a score that many believe will help drive leases.

In recent years, much emphasis has been placed on energy efficiency and the ENERGY STAR rating in the commercial and public building sectors with only limited applications to multifamily. Until now, apartments eligible for the rating were once limited by size and age.

Read more...ENERGY STAR® includes Broader Scope of Apartments in Rating System | Property Management Insider

More Americans Are Preferring the Lease to the Mortgage via NYTimes.com

THE homeownership rate in the United States plunged during the Great Recession. Many families lost their homes as prices collapsed and unemployment rose.

Now the economy is growing, and there are more jobs than ever. Home prices have risen, although they have not fully recovered.

But the homeownership rate continues to decline.

Read more...More Americans Are Preferring the Lease to the Mortgage - NYTimes.com