We’ve Hit the Halfway Point for Vintage CMBS via CoStar Group

Having just passed the five-year anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis peak, it’s a good time to review the impact of pre-crisis over-exuberance and excessive leverage on CMBS.

Total legacy U.S. CMBS 1.0 loan balances declined to $450 billion at the end of the third quarter from $825 billion at the end of 2008, as shown in Exhibit 1.1

Servicers liquidated approximately $65 billion in loans that lost a total of $28 billion over the past five years. Another $20 billion of defaulted loans either finally paid off or were liquidated with no losses. Total cumulative losses in the U.S. CMBS space have reached $32 billion, including losses sustained before the crisis.(2)

Read more...We’ve Hit the Halfway Point for Vintage CMBS - CoStar Group

DFW Economic Indicators December 2013 via Dallas Fed

The Dallas–Fort Worth economy continued to expand in November and has grown at a moderately strong pace year to date. Through November, Dallas–Fort Worth employment grew 2.6 percent, slightly above the state’s rate of 2.5 percent and well above the U.S. pace of 1.7 percent. Residential activity remains at high levels, and home inventories remain low. Strong leasing activity has kept apartment vacancies at historically low levels despite strong construction. The Dallas and Fort Worth unemployment rates remain below those of the U.S. and Texas, and the Dallas Fed Business-Cycle Indexes suggest continued expansion for the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex.

Dallas–Fort Worth employment continued to increase in November but at a slower pace. November jobs grew at an annual rate of 1.0 percent following more robust growth in October. For the year, Dallas–Fort Worth has added 73,700 jobs. Currently, Dallas–Fort Worth Worth employment stands at 3.14 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ payroll survey.

Read more...DFW Economic Indicators December 2013 via Dallas Fed

Economists: Texas Economy to Grow Stronger in 2014 via GlobeSt.com

Economists with BBVA Compass and Wells Fargo agree that the U.S, along with the Texas and Dallas-Forth Worth economies, will experience stronger growth in the coming year.

Both firms expect employment to improve and consumer confidence to grow in 2014. BBVA Compass predicts GDP growth in 25 states to exceed the U.S. average of 2.3% in 2014, driven by real estate, manufacturing and energy markets, according to the Dallas Morning News.

Read more...Economists: Texas Economy to Grow Stronger in 2014 - Daily News Article - GlobeSt.com

San Antonio Apartment Market Update November 2013 via oconnordata.com

Market Summary

Most key metrics of the San Antonio area multifamily sector recorded positive changes in November 2013.

The occupancy figures recorded mostly negative values for all the classes. For class A properties, occupancy decreased by 0.28% over the month to close at 93.47%; and decreased by 0.22% over the year. For Class B properties, occupancy went up by 0.01% over the month and decreased by 0.04% over the year to close at 92.29%.

Read more...San Antonio Apartment Market Update November 2013

Austin Apartment Market Update November 2013 via oconnordata

Market Summary

All metrics for the Austin area multifamily sector recorded both positive and negative changes in November 2013.

Occupancy figures recorded both positive and negative figures for the classes for the month. Class A properties reported a decrease of 0.51% over last month, and 0.10% over last year. The largest increase over the month was recorded for Class B reporting an increase of 0.11%. The largest increase over the year was also noted for Class B with an increase of 0.40%.

Read more...Austin Apartment Market Update November 2013

Dallas/Ft. Worth Apartment Market Update November 2013 via oconnordata

Market Summary

The key metrics for the Dallas/Fort Worth area multifamily sector recorded significant changes both over the month and over the year.

Over the month all the classes recorded mostly an upward trend in terms of occupancy. Class A properties recorded a decrease of 0.23% over previous month. Also on a year-over-year basis Class A properties recorded a decrease of 0.36%. Class C recorded the largest increase of 0.09% over the month. The largest annual increase of 1.66% was also noted for Class C properties.

Read more...Dallas/Ft. Worth Apartment Market Update November 2013

Houston Apartment Market Update November 2013 via oconnordata.com

Market Summary

Key metrics for the Houston area multifamily sector recorded both positive and negative changes in November 2013.

Occupancy figures for the classes recorded both positive and negative changes over the month. Class A recorded a decrease of 0.19% to close at 94.28%. The largest monthly increase was noted for Class C properties (0.25%). For Class A properties the average went down by 0.53% over the year. The largest annual increase was also noted for Class C properties with an average increase of 2.87% to close at 89.50%.

Read more...Houston Apartment Market Update November 2013

Texas unemployment rate hits five-year low via Dallas Business Journal

The Texas unemployment rate dropped to 6.1 percent in November, the lowest it’s been in nearly five years, according to statistics released Friday by the Texas Workforce Commission. At the same time, the state ranked second in the nation for job creation, adding 28,700 non-farm positions, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics also reported.

In the Dallas area, the unemployment rate was even lower: 5.7 percent, dropping from 5.9 percent in October and 5.8 percent in November 2012. In the Fort Worth area, joblessness was at 5.5 percent.

Read more...Texas unemployment rate hits five-year low - Dallas Business Journal

Where the Renters Live Now - Emily Badger via The Atlantic Cities

Alongside a wealth of new data released Tuesday from the American Community Survey, the Census Bureau unveiled a nice new mapping tool that makes it possible to visualize individual neighborhoods by everything from the age of the local population to the median income to the share of residents with a high school diploma. The most recent picture is based on new five-year ACS data from 2007-2012.

But the tool also pulls in results form the 1990 and 2000 censuses, making it possible to compare states, counties and census tracts over time across each of these categories.

Read more...Where the Renters Live Now - Emily Badger - The Atlantic Cities

Demand prompting a new wave of multifamily development in San Antonio via San Antonio Business Journal

By the end of 2013, a total of 4,000 new apartment units will have been added to the San Antonio-area apartment market.

Then it’s on to 2014 where the market could gain another 6,000 new apartment units in and around the Alamo City.

The roster of players includes some relative newcomers, like Turner Busby Development LLC, and well recognized names, like locally based Embrey Partners.

Read more...Demand prompting a new wave of multifamily development in San Antonio - San Antonio Business Journal

Austin unemployment rate steady pace in 2013 via Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

Austin's unemployment plateaued at around 5 percent throughout most of 2013 — nearly a full two points below the national average. The region's employers added 20,795 jobs between January 2013 and October 2013, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The new jobs outpaced labor force gains over the same period of 15,289, driving the not seasonally adjusted unemployment rate down from 5.8 percent in January to 5.1 percent in October.

Read more...Austin unemployment rate steady pace in 2013 via Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

Regional Economy Continues Moderate Expansion via Dallas Fed

The Texas economy has continued to grow at a moderate pace in recent weeks. Employment has picked up significantly following weak growth in August. Energy job growth has subsided from high third-quarter rates, and construction jobs have rebounded after weakening in August. Manufacturing increased strongly in October, in part due to strength in Texas exports.

Overall job growth in 2014 is likely to be nearly the same as in 2013. Manufacturing activity is likely to pick up, while growth in energy and residential housing construction jobs may decelerate and federal government jobs will likely decline.

Read more...Regional Economy Continues Moderate Expansion - Dallas Fed

Increases, Though Slight, In Construction Employment via Axiometrics

During the Great Recession and the following financial meltdown, the construction industry took a hit. With demand for all classes of real estate faltering, this sector experienced many layoffs.

The good news is that the sector is starting to come back. The challenge is that the results are mixed.
A new analysis from the Association of General Contractors noted that, between October 2012 and October 2013, construction employment expanded in 215 metro areas, declined in 74 and was stagnant in 50. Furthermore, despite a recovering single-family market and increasing multifamily development in many metro areas around the country, construction employment remains below peak levels in 315 metro areas.

Read more...Increases, Though Slight, In Construction Employment

CBRE Sees Little Risk of Apartment Glut via GlobeSt.com

Although it may seem as though apartment development is entering a glut period, a CBRE report says that permits and starts are just now reaching their long-term averages. The comparative run-up in construction lately follows three years of dormancy, and CBRE is forecasting apartment rents to grow by approximately 2.5% per year for the next three years even as the level of development increases.

“The multi-housing sector is only now beginning to fill a supply shortage that has existed following a three-year-long drought in development resulting from the recession,” says Jim Costello, CBRE’s head of Americas Investment Research.

Read more...CBRE Sees Little Risk of Apartment Glut - Daily News Article - GlobeSt.com

3 Resident Retention Resolutions to Rock 2014 via Property Management Insider

The New Year is days away, and while we have survived the budget process, strategic planning and the company holiday party, for our over-achieving property managers out there, the question that is percolating in the back of their brains is: how do we make 2014 even better?

This past year offered opportunities to push rents, spend a little more on community improvements and training, and really allow teams to do what they do best. But what now? The only thing we can count on to be consistent in our industry is change.

Read more...3 Resident Retention Resolutions to Rock 2014 | Property Management Insider

Rent Growth Expected in U.S. Multi-Housing via World Property Channel

U.S. multi-housing rents are expected to grow approximately 2.5 percent each year for the next three years, even as the level of new construction increases, according to a report from CBRE.

The report shows that the pace of new multi-family construction in the U.S. will level off at approximately 216,000 units per year over the next five years, a figure slightly higher than historical averages.

Read more...Rent Growth Expected in U.S. Multi-Housing - WORLD PROPERTY CHANNEL Global News Center

Reflecting Back on 2013 via Commercial Property Executive

As we take a closer look at the dynamics of the economy, it seems that the economic climate has done little more than putter along in 2013.

There has been slight improvement, with third quarter 2013 GDP growing at a seasonally –adjusted annual rate of 3.6 percent, the highest rate in more than a year, and unemployment dropping to 7.0 percent in November, its lowest level since mid-2008. In addition, consumers finally pulled out their pocketbooks and retail spending increased 0.7 percent in November to five-month highs. However, business spending was weak in third quarter, with spending concentrated mostly on the build-up of inventories and almost zero spending on equipment. As for government contributions, spending is down but still running at a deficit, and many investors wonder where the economy would be without the added support provided by the Federal Reserve’s $85 billion in monthly purchases of bonds and securities.

Read more...Reflecting Back on 2013 | Commercial Property Executive

FOMC Projections and Press Conference via Calculated Risk

The key sentences in the announcement were: "In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions, the Committee decided to modestly reduce the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in January, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $35 billion per month rather than $40 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $40 billion per month rather than $45 billion per month."

Read more...Calculated Risk: FOMC Projections and Press Conference

Push For Yield Will Lead to Secondary Cities in 2014 via GlobeSt.com

The push for yields will mean deeper inroads into markets outside the usual suspects in 2014, DTZ says in its Capital Markets Update issued Wednesday. “Many investors will take a harder look at the Texas, Oregon and Washington markets as the year progresses,” according to DTZ’s report, which cites Dallas, Houston—both of which are leading the recovery—as well as Seattle, Sacramento and Portland, OR.

Cross border investors in particular will have their eyes on these markets “in an effort to spread risk and improve returns as they continue their investments in the Americas,” DTZ says. Another driver, the report says, is a need to diversify portfolios and asset classes.

Read more...Push For Yield Will Lead to Secondary Cities in 2014 - Daily News Article - GlobeSt.com

U.S. Housing Starts Reach Highest Level in Five Years via World Property Channel

The number of U.S. housing starts in November increased 22.7 percent from the prior month, reaching its highest level in five years.

Housing starts reached an annually adjusted rate of 1,091,000 -- up from the revised estimate of 889,000 starts in October -- jumping 29.6 percent higher than last November's rate of 842,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development data released today.

Single-family housing starts reach a rate of 727,000 in November, increasing 20.8 percent from last month's figure of 602,000.

Read more...U.S. Housing Starts Reach Highest Level in Five Years - WORLD PROPERTY CHANNEL Global News Center

Five Places Apartment Seekers Find the Zero Moment of Truth via Multifamily Blogs

Believe it or not, a lot of the marketing happening within the multifamily industry isn’t completely connected with what’s happening in the leasing office. “We are in an industry where customers self-identify as prospects and spend a considerable amount of time finding us through search,” explains D2 Demand Solutions president Donald Davidoff. “The flipside is that those prospects are coming to us at a point where they know as much or more about our product and our competitor’s product—including pricing and reviews—as we do,”

As a result, the Zero Moment of Truth (ZMOT) concept popularized by Google and trending across the multifamily marketing landscape is having a much more indelible impact, Davidoff says. ZMOT holds that consumer purchasing patterns and use of technology has empowered a new era of online leasing, targeted marketing and demand creation, and the ability to begin creating brand ambassadors at first (or zero) point of contact.

Read more...Five Places Apartment Seekers Find the Zero Moment of Truth - Multifamily Blogs

CMBS Late-Pays Likely to Finish Year Below 6% via GlobeSt.com

Delinquencies on CMBS could dip below 6% by year’s end, the lowest level since 2009, Fitch Ratings said Monday. The ratings agency cited a 22-basis point drop in November to 6.10% on the strength of four large loan dispositions. With the $2.57-billion CWCapital Asset Management asset sale still in process, Fitch is expecting more such dispositions in the weeks to come.

Even as late-pays continue to decline, Fitch notes that the prior month was not without several notable additions to the ranks. The largest was the $92-million Cerritos Corporate Center (securitized as MLMT 2006-C1), for which a deed in lieu foreclosure now appears imminent. At the same time, Fitch says the $78-million Sierra Vista Mall (COMM 2006-C8) fell 60-days delinquent last month, while the $63-million Buckingham Portfolio (GCCFC 2007-GG9) defaulted at maturity and is now reported as a nonperforming matured balloon loan.

Read more...CMBS Late-Pays Likely to Finish Year Below 6% - Daily News Article - GlobeSt.com

APARTMENT MARKET STATISTICS: December 2013 via Multi-Housing News Online

Banks are increasing their construction loans for the first time since 2007, according to Chandan Economics. Banks registered a quarterly increase of 897,529 in the second quarter 2013.

Year-over-year growth in residential construction prices decelerated from 2.1 percent in July 2013 to 1.7 percent in August 2013. After a period of significant increases, prices of building materials now display slower rates of year-over-year growth or outright declines, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

Read more...APARTMENT MARKET STATISTICS: December 2013 | Multi-Housing News Online

Senior Renter Population Expected to Spike 40% via Reverse Mortgage Daily

American housing trends have been shifting away from ownership toward rental, says a new report, and as the population ages, the number of senior renters is expected to increase by 40% in the next decade.

In 2012, renters comprised 35% of U.S. households, reaching 43 million by early 2013, according to the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University in a 2013 report on America’s Rental Housing: Evolving Markets and Needs. While older age groups are more likely to own a home, by 2011, there were nearly 5.5 million renters aged 65 and older.

Read more...Senior Renter Population Expected to Spike 40% | Reverse Mortgage Daily

Houston Economic Update December 2013 via Dallas Fed

The Houston Business-Cycle Index has been volatile the past few months, but recent data suggest acceleration in economic activity from earlier in the year. The index grew at a strong annualized pace of 9 percent in September before slowing in October to 4.5 percent. With an active construction market and a healthy energy industry, Houston-area fundamentals remain robust heading into the end of the year.

Houston payroll employment grew at an annualized pace of 3 percent in October and 2.2 percent over the three months ending in October. Other services (which includes businesses as varied as auto repair shops and pet hotels), and construction and mining were the fastest-growing industries in October. Financial activities dropped sharply. Manufacturing employment, which had virtually ground to a halt over the summer, grew at an annualized pace of 7.6 percent in September and 6.6 percent in October, the fastest rates of the year.

Read more...Houston Economic Update December 2013 via Dallas Fed

U.S. Commercial, Multifamily Debt Rises Most Since 2008 via World Property Channel

The level of outstanding commercial and multifamily mortgage debt increased by $25.2 billion during the third quarter, the largest increase since 2008, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The total outstanding commercial and multifamily debt stood at $2.47 trillion in the third quarter. Multifamily mortgage debt alone increased to $887 billion, an increase of $10.8 billion from the second quarter, the MBA reports. - See more at: http://www.worldpropertychannel.com/north-america-commercial-news/commercialmultifamily-mortgage-debt-third-quarter-2013-mortgage-bankers-association-7770.php#sthash.U2rrrIRx.dpuf

Read more...U.S. Commercial, Multifamily Debt Rises Most Since 2008 - WORLD PROPERTY CHANNEL Global News Center

New Report Hints at Slowing Apartment Development Activity in 2014 via AppFolio

Dallas-based industry research firm, Axiometrics, has released its latest housing market predictions, and the news bodes well for property managers in certain multi-housing markets tracking the rise in inventory.

The study suggests that starting next year, “the development of new apartments will slow until investors and developers see new supply absorbed and market conditions recalibrated.”

Jim Costello, managing director of America research for CBRE echoed those findings during the company’s Multi-Housing Summit Florida in Miami last month. “We see a little more construction in 2014, but that’s the peak,” he said.

Read more...New Report Hints at Slowing Apartment Development Activity in 2014

ALN Monthly Newsletter December 2013 via ALN Apartment Data

ALN Data just released their November 2013 stats on occupancy and rents for 23 markets. In Texas, it includes DFW, Austin, Houston, San Antonio, Lubbock, Amarillo, Abilene and Corpus Christi. It is a must read from a great provider of apartment data.

Read more...ALN Monthly Newsletter December 2013 via ALN Apartment Data

New Year Demands New Investment Strategies via Multifamily Executive Magazine

Amid pitched competition that has driven down cap rates, identifying assets that will provide targeted returns will increasingly force multifamily investors to adopt new investment strategies during 2014.

Purchasing properties with below-market rents, subsequently strengthening occupancy and raising rents, and then selling the property for a handsome profit was a winning strategy coming out of the recession, but no more.

Read more...New Year Demands New Investment Strategies - Multifamily Executive Magazine

5 Reasons Why You Should Raise the Rent via AppFolio

While raising rent probably isn’t on any landlord’s list of fun ways to spend their day — given that tenants won’t exactly respond to the news with happy excitement — it’s a necessary part of property management.

Here are the top 5 reasons to consider raising rent.

1. Keeping Up With the Market

One of the best reasons to raise the rent is keeping up with the local real estate market. A 2013 report on the rental housing market from the U.S. Census Bureau indicates that the rental market continues to tighten across the country, with prices increasing as demand rises.

Read more...5 Reasons Why You Should Raise the Rent

Top 10 Rent Growth Markets of 2014 via Multifamily Executive Magazine

Industry experts project that some of the largest metro areas will see some of the largest rent growth next year.

Seattle will continue to grow in 2014 and is expected to see the largest percent change in rents, according to Carrollton, Texas-based MPF Research.

San Francisco will push rents by about 4.7 percent, according to the projection. The Bay Area showed job growth as the unemployment rate dropped from 6.9 percent in July to 6.1 percent in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. California markets showed strong rents over the last two years, according to the 2012 list and preliminary 2013 numbers.

Read more...Top 10 Rent Growth Markets of 2014 - Multifamily Executive Magazine

Rates, Tapering & Lending Sources: What’s a Borrower To Do? via National Real Estate Investor

As the commercial real estate market continues to improve, lenders of all kinds are getting back in the game. With a possible rise in interest rates on the horizon and the unknown effects and timing of tapering, commercial real estate professionals and lenders are watching the lending environment with eagle eyes.

With financing rates, terms and underwriting having such a huge impact on commercial real estate, I invited some industry icons to Studio One to get a view of the latest trends and an idea of what lies ahead. If you’ve heard the Commercial Real Estate Show you know we like to have fun; we called this week’s show, Show Me the Money.

Choices
Sourcing the right lenders for particular assets is important, and fortunately we have more choices today than we have had in years.

Read more...Rates, Tapering & Lending Sources: What’s a Borrower To Do? | CMBS content from National Real Estate Investor

Austin Multifamily Market Report via REBusinessOnline.com

Saying that Austin's multifamily market has been a strong performer for the past several years would be stating the obvious and hardly newsworthy, considering that all of the well-reported economic rankings list Austin at or near the top. Nevertheless, the numbers from the past five years are remarkable.

While 2013 will go into the record books as one of the best years for multifamily landlords, the real story for 2014 — and beyond — is how the market responds to the two forces that have clearly started to change: supply and financing.

Supply Surge

There is no hiding the fact that a building boom is occurring in central Austin, as the cranes for multi-family construction easily outnumber the activity in hospitality and office properties combined.

Read more...Austin Multifamily Market Report via REBusinessOnline.com

Speculators Eye Affordable Housing via NuWire

Investors are seeking higher yielding investments, looking far beyond conventional, class-A apartment properties in prime markets. A growing number are bidding for government subsidized affordable housing properties.

“We’ve seen this cycle before. Conventional real estate investors come and play in our sandbox,” says R. Lee Harris, president and CEO of Cohen-Esrey Real Estate Services, a leading owner, manager and developer of affordable housing. “This is not a business you learn overnight.”

Harris and others shared their insights at AHF Live: The 2013 Affordable Housing Developers Summit, held in Chicago, Nov. 20-22. Affordable housing has become a relatively stable, strong business over the years, but poses challenges to speculators who aim to quickly raise the rents at affordable housing properties, according to housing advocates.

Read more...Speculators Eye Affordable Housing

Renters Face Affordable Housing Crisis, Harvard Housing Study Reports via Multi-Housing News Online

Renters are spending more of their monthly incomes on housing than ever before. A major need exists for new rental buildings with affordable apartments. And though newly built rental units surged in 2012, rental completions remain below average annual levels over the previous decade.

These are among findings of the 2013 America’s Rental Housing study, released today, by Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS). The release event at Washington, D.C.’s Newseum was headlined by Secretary of Housing and Urban Development’s Shaun Donovan.

One finding of the study is that the rental burden has never been higher. Half of renters spend more than 30 percent of their monthly income on housing.

Read more...Renters Face Affordable Housing Crisis, Harvard Housing Study Reports | Multi-Housing News Online

Developers of New Housing Aim for Renters, Not Buyers via NYTimes.com

Houston is better known for urban sprawl than dense apartment living. But as part of a national rush to capitalize on rising rents, developers there are building thousands of apartments like those south of downtown at Camden City Centre, where 268 units will open early next year in a complex that also has two swimming pools, billiards tables, a coffee bar and a fitness center.

As residential building recovers from a near standstill after the housing crisis, much of the momentum is coming not from subdivisions with green lawns and two-car garages but from rental apartments. Multifamily construction nationwide is two-thirds of the way back to its prerecession peak, while single-family home construction is still only about a third of the way back to its peak, said David Crowe, the chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders.

Read more...Developers of New Housing Aim for Renters, Not Buyers - NYTimes.com

Feds Wage War on Bed Bugs via Property Management Insider

The war on bed bugs continues to wage on, and some heavy artillery appears to be on the way.

In September, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released a draft of a Federal Strategy on Bed Bugs, which has been about three years in the making. The Strategy is intended to provide guidance for how various levels of government can join forces with pest control efforts to effectively fight the war on bed bugs.

That’s good news for the apartment industry, which has been lobbying Washington D.C. for help. The National Multi Housing Council says Congress should implement a “Manhattan Project” on bed bugs. Such brute force is needed, NMHC says, “to expedite the development of a safe and effective “next generation” pesticide to control bed bug infestations,” and that the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) should help educate residents on the collateral damage potential of bed bugs.

Read more...Feds Wage War on Bed Bugs | Property Management Insider

CRE Prices Still Increasing via the Blog of the Real Estate Center

“There is too much money chasing deals.”

That was a popular phrase back in the golden years of 2006 and 2007 when it was hard to find a real estate deal to invest in that had sufficient yield. Cap rates were low, prices were high and buying intensity was fierce.

If you thought there was too much money chasing real estate deals in 2007, there is even more money chasing the same deals in 2013. Since 2007, the United States, Japan, Europe and China have printed trillions of new “dollars.” New construction has been stymied by tight credit in America. So there are trillions of new dollars chasing the same U.S. real estate.

Read more...CRE Prices Still Increasing | the Blog of the Real Estate Center

By Any Measure, CRE Default Rates Are Dropping via GlobeSt.com

Two separate reports add to the growing picture of health that is commercial real estate finance. Both reports--one from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the other from Chandan Economics—show delinquency rates dropping across most categories of loan types. "Improvements in underlying property performance and property values, and the continued availability of commercial and multifamily mortgage financing, led to declines in delinquency rates for every major investor group," said Jaime Woodwell, MBA's Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research.

MBA reported that delinquency rates for commercial and multifamily mortgage loans continued their decline in the third quarter of 2013, with the 60+ day delinquency rate for commercial and multifamily mortgages held in life company portfolios decreasing 0.02 percentage points to 0.06%.

Read more...By Any Measure, CRE Default Rates Are Dropping - Daily News Article - GlobeSt.com

8 Threats to Apartment Owners via Multifamily Executive Magazine

As the rest of the economy has foundered, apartment owners have surged coming out of the recession. But the good times might not last forever. Here are eight things that could wreck their joyride.

Read more...8 Threats to Apartment Owners - Multifamily Executive Magazine

Dallas Beige Book 12-4-13 via Dallas Fed

The Eleventh District economy expanded at a moderate pace over the past six weeks. Manufacturing activity increased overall, with demand weakening in only a few industries. Retail sales picked up over the period, but automobiles sales were slightly down. Nonfinancial services firms reported steady to somewhat improved demand. The housing sector softened due to seasonal factors and rising home prices, and apartment, office and industrial leasing activity remained strong. Loan demand softened at financial institutions. Energy activity remained strong, and drought conditions in the agricultural sector continued to ease. Prices were unchanged or increased mildly at most responding firms, and employment held steady or rose modestly. There were scattered reports of pay increases and wage pressures. Industry outlooks were generally more positive during the reporting period.

Read more...Dallas Beige Book - Dallas Fed

2014 Outlook for Capital Markets via Commercial Property Executive

Investment activity is expected to increase in 2014 as occupancies have stabilized to levels that might warrant landlords to exit from their post-recession acquisitions, and access to capital remains prevalent. Moreover, with a significant number of commercial real estate loans coming due in the next three years, industry analysts are predicting dramatic growth in the issuance of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). It is expected that more than $1 trillion of commercial real estate loans nationally will mature over the next few years and these assets are going to need new debt. However, it shouldn’t be overlooked that not all of those loans will present appealing refinancing opportunities for lenders.

Read more...2014 Outlook for Capital Markets | Commercial Property Executive

Q3 2013 Bank Lending and Default Report via Chandan Economics

Bank lending on multifamily and commercial properties continues to recover as market and balance sheet conditions improve. New lending is diluting the impact of non-performing legacy loans, pushing default rates lower for the tenth consecutive quarter. Leading those improvements, the apartment default rate is now below 1.0 percent for the first time since 2007.

Read more...Q3 2013 Bank Lending and Default Report | Chandan Economics

Comerica's Texas economic activity index jumps via Dallas Business Journal

Comerica Bank's Texas economic activity index rose by 1.9 percent in September to 104.8, a level just shy of the peak earlier this year.

The index shows a steady recovery at 33 points above the cyclical, 2009 low of 71.6, but has been trending downward slightly between January and August 2013. September's growth reversed that trend and brought the index back near high reached in 2008.

Read more...Comerica's Texas economic activity index jumps - Dallas Business Journal

Multifamily loan delinquencies decline in 3Q via HousingWire

The delinquency rates for commercial and multifamily mortgages continued to fall in the third quarter, new data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) claims.

The trade group released its commercial/multifamily delinquency report Tuesday, noting that loans 60 or more days past due held by life company portfolios fell 0.02 percentage points to 0.06%.

Meanwhile, the serious delinquency rate for multifamily loans held or insured by Freddie Mac fell 0.04 percentage points to a rate of 0.05%.

Read more...Multifamily loan delinquencies decline in 3Q | 2013-12-03 | HousingWire

Houston Multifamily Market Report via REBusinessOnline.com

While the national economy remains sluggish, the energy-fueled Houston economy continues to power a resurgent local apartment market. The Houston multifamily market is the strongest it has been in years, with robust performance across classes and in virtually every submarket.

Construction has rebounded from the depressed levels of the past few years, but demand continues to exceed supply, forcing rents ever higher. The statistics say that vacancy is at its lowest level in nearly eight years, and rents are at their highest rate on record. I am seeing that borne out, as virtually every deal that crosses my desk shows that income is on an upward trend.

Read more...Houston Multifamily Market Report via REBusinessOnline.com

Real Estate Trends | Where Is Everybody Going? US Populations Shifts through 2030 via Multifamily Blogs

Recently we reviewed our predictions for 2014, where we learned that the real estate market is expecting construction of more that 400,000 units per year over the next few years. The question is, where are all these units going to be built?

Read more...Real Estate Trends | Where Is Everybody Going? US Populations Shifts through 2030 - Multifamily Blogs

Dallas–Fort Worth Economic Update November 2013 via Dallas Fed

The Dallas–Fort Worth economy has expanded at a moderately strong pace this year and is outperforming the state as a whole. Year to date, Dallas–Fort Worth employment has grown 2.9 percent, which is above the state’s rate of 2.4 percent. Job growth continues to be mostly broad-based across sectors. Housing activity remains at high levels, and home prices continue to rise as inventories fall. Demand for industrial space has led to the lowest availability rates since 2007. The Dallas and Fort Worth unemployment rates remain below those of the U.S and Texas, and the Dallas Fed Business-Cycle Indexes suggest continued expansion for the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex.

Read more...Dallas–Fort Worth Economic Update November 2013 via Dallas Fed

The Beginning of the End for the Apartment Pricing Boom via CoStar Group

The apartment boom is eventually coming to an end; it’s only a question of when. An increase in deliveries and a cooling off or stabilizing of purchases by REITs are a couple of the reasons why this property type will see a correction in pricing.

New construction is starting to roll in and Exhibit 1 below reveals what the tip of the iceberg looks like. The grey bars show that sales of apartment buildings aged two years or less spiked dramatically in 2012, and that 2013 apartment sales will almost undoubtedly end up passing that.

Read more...The Beginning of the End for the Apartment Pricing Boom - CoStar Group